[visionlist] Call to predict the replicability of influential EEG studies

[Dominik Welke]

Hi visionlist –



Apologies for cross posting!



I want to forward a call for EEG users to participate in a project on predicting if the findings of a set of influential EEG studies will replicate.
You will register your predictions (we provide information sheets for each study to base your decision on), and the studies will actually be replicated over the coming years so that we can validate the predictions.



If you have worked with EEG or MEG before, it would be great if you participated!
It will give us important data on researchers’ expectations and confidence in the context of replication studies and you will earn money for a charity of your choice (and potentially yourself).



Participation is possible until June 2. More details below.

We would be grateful if you could also forward this call to your colleagues and students.


Cheers,
Dominik





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Prediction markets for #EEGManyLabs

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#EEGManyLabs is an international network of researchers who have come together to assess the replicability of some of the most important and influential EEG experiments of psychological phenomena (Pavlov et al. (2021) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2021.03.013).

To participate, we will first ask you to complete a detailed survey to gather your expert opinion on the replicability of some hypotheses studied in the #EEGManyLabs project. Each hypothesis is supplemented by a short description of the background and the statistics used for the hypothesis test in the original study (also availablehere: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E1b-hH0X7WZs9ijl0ry-snw1hU5gbDmG0Dd3HKFj-BM/). While this survey is comprehensive and may require some time to complete, your insights are crucial for enriching our understanding of how experts in our field are capable of predicting the outcomes of complex hypotheses. The results of the survey and prediction markets will also tell us about the degree of optimism/pessimism amongst the EEG community.

Subsequently, you will be invited to bet (between June 3rd-14th) on the likelihood of success through a stock market platform. In the process you will earn $10USD for a selected charity immediately and up to $300 USD (for you as a gift voucher or charity) when the results are completed.

To ensure that our results are truly representative, we urge you to involve as many colleagues as possible, including PhD and postdoctoral researchers. Your participation is vital. Please help us by completing the survey yourself and by sharing the sign-up form widely.



TL;DR

Step 1: Survey
(Takes ~60 mins. TBC in May.)
Link: https://leedspsychology.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_b7NN5sQvZpynI2O

Step 2: Betting!
(June)



How can I sign up?

Registrations to participate in the prediction markets are administered via the following form:
https://leedspsychology.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_b7NN5sQvZpynI2O
You must have experience of working with EEG (for example, through collecting and/or analysing EEG data).

Timeframes

Registration to participate in the markets (through completion of the survey) will close on June 2 at 4 pm UTC.

The prediction markets will then open on June 3 and you will be able to place your bets until June 14.

How will market participation be incentivized?

Trading on the prediction markets will be incentivized, i.e., traders will be paid based on their market performance. Payments will be made after the markets close, and the payoffs are determined by the actual replication outcomes. When signing up for the markets, participants can indicate whether the final payment shall be paid via an Amazon Gift Card or donated to charity. In addition, all participants in the prediction markets will be allocated USD $10 to allocate to one charity (out of several options) that will be paid out immediately after the markets have closed. More information on the prediction markets is available here: https://osf.io/ga5ry





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